Your job today is clear: prepare a one-page proposal for management to decide whether to expand the pilot.
20 to 25 minutes.Four real sources.I have a job to do.✅ Start: Proposal for a decision
1. Key decisions
2. What We Know
3. Choices
4. Proposals
YOUR TASK
1. Management waiting for a decision
The price testing program at the two stores is showing positive initial signals. Should we expand the trial to other stores in HCM City?
- AI said right away.
The pilot program was successful, so it should be implemented for even six stores.
What should you do?
You need a proposal that has data supporting it, that has alternatives and that makes it clear what's uncertain.
What's the biggest problem with AI?
The Right Way to Believe
Two, download four sources
📊
pilot-results.csv
Sales, traffic, margin of two pilot stores.
💰
financial-impact.csv
Estimate sales uplift and margin risk in three ways.
⚙️
operations-readiness.csv
The level of readiness of six stores in HCM.
📝
meeting-notes.md
What management is interested in and the uncertainty.
The Bible says: "The world is full of falsehood".
3. Keep only what is proved
What I know
Two pilot stores have increased sales and traffic.
Margin dropped at both stores.
The expansion of six stores has an estimated risk margin of -58k USD per month.
Three-sixth of the stores are only at partial readiness.
What's not certain
The stretch in the long run.
Whether the sales increase is sustainable.
The new stores are partially ready to be completed before deployment.
Divide the four sources into two groups: 1. What is already proven 2. What is uncertain/needs further confirmation Not recommended. Do not call a test program successful unless you have clearly defined which criteria are used to assess success.
You're here.
You've identified the key decisions and what you really know. comparing options.
The third step is to make the most of the opportunity.
4. To make good decisions, you need to have a comparison
The Resolution
Benefits
Turn around / disadvantage
It's still not clear.
It's expanding to six stores.
Fast deployment, leveraging current growth momentum
The highest margin investment
Availability levels between stores are uneven
Expansion controls three more stores.
Continue to gain practical experience while limiting risk
It's slower than the six-store plan.
We still need more data to test the stretch.
Keeping the two test shops intact
Minimising financial risk
Slowly exploiting growth opportunities and potentially losing ground
After a few weeks, the data may still not be enough to draw a definitive conclusion.
What is the best balance between continuing to learn from reality and limiting risk?
Good enough to go on when: there are at least two options, and with each option you've seen at least one benefit and one trade-off.
The fourth step is to make sure that the child is well-versed.
5. Write suggestions without turning uncertainty into certainty
I shouldn't.
The launch of all six stores will help increase sales by 3%.
So, what?
The expansion proposal controls three more stores to continue to test customers' response to price changes, while limiting investment to margin.
Write a recommendation based on: - evidence already known; - the options that have been compared; - the main downside; - the uncertain. Do not use definite language if the data is insufficient. The proposal must explain why this option is more suitable than the others.
The Red Cross
6. Complete the decision proposal
A Key Decision
What I know
It's still not clear.
The options considered
Proposals
The next step.
✓
You've completed Lesson 10.
You've gone from data → solutions → suggestions, instead of letting AI jump straight from statistics to conclusions.
One sentence to carry: A good proposal doesn't start with what I think I should do, but with the data that's available that allows me to consider what options I should.