An AI sentence can start with real data, go through a rational inference, and end with a very sound conclusion but no supporting evidence.
10 to 15 minutes.🧠 Evidence → Inference → Assumption Role-play with business analysis🎯 Output: Evidence / Inference / Assumption Review
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🧠 MANAGER THINKING
1. A story that makes sense. But how far is it going?
The Beginning Situation
The data
Store
Sales vs LY
Traffic vs LY
Margin vs LY
Store A
+8%
+10%
-4%
🤖 AI
Store A increased sales by 8% due to increased traffic by 10%. However, margin decreased by 4%, possibly due to deeper promotion. This suggests that the store is using discount to buy growth.
Which of the above output sentences is definitely proof-of-concept?
Not all the conclusions are bad. The point is you have to know which floor it's on.
- The first floor.
📎 EVIDENCE
Something that has data or a direct support source.
Could be the source.
→
Second floor.
🧠 INFERENCE
Logical conclusions are derived from evidence, but not direct facts.
Well, it's a good idea, but it needs to be checked.
→
- The third floor.
⚠️ ASSUMPTION
Things are added to fill in the blanks when evidence is insufficient.
It's not supposed to be a fact.
The manager doesn't need to rule out inference. Separate inference from evidence. And not to the assumption of the lottery fact.
The game is a role-playing game.
3. How do you classify each sentence?
Store A's sales are up 8%.
Increased traffic can be a driving factor in sales.
The margin decreases because of the deeper promotion.
The store is buying up with a discount.
🧠 MANAGER THINKING
Fourth, the same way that words can make it look more reliable than data.
I'm too sure.
The margin decreases due to deeper promotion.
Say it with certainty
A possibility to check is the promotion mix or the discount level.
Words like The reason is, of course, the reason. Often, we need stronger evidence from words like It's possible, it's a possibility, it needs to be tested..
I'm not sure what I'm doing.
5. To make inference a conclusion, what more do you need?
AI says, "The lower margin could be due to the deeper promotion".
What is the most useful source?
🧠 MANAGER THINKING
6. Is the question more powerful than AI?
Instead of asking
That's the conclusion, right?
Ask him
What is the direct evidence? What is the inference? What is the inference that needs to be tested?
When AI can't point to evidence, keep the conclusions in the state of The hypothesis needs to be tested.Don't make it a fact.
⏸ STOP & CHECK
7. Have you distinguished the three floors?
1 · Evidence What's the direct support source?
2 · Inference What is logical but not factual?
3 · Assumption What's filling the void with unproven evidence?
Write it down in your own words.
🛠 HANDS-ON WITH AI
8. Requiring AI to separate evidence from interpretation
Prompt 1 · Classify each sentence
For each sentence, classify it into: - Evidence - Inference - Assumption With Evidence, indicating the data or sources that support it. For Inference, specify which evidence the inference is based on. For Assumption, list enough evidence and provide additional data. Do not make inference or assumption a fact.
Prompt 2 · Write it down with certainty
So, let's rewrite the analysis to make a clear distinction: 1. what we know from the data; 2. what we can infer; 3. what we need to test.
🛠 HANDS-ON REVIEW
9. What output is used in management review?
The output of the body
10. Create your own Evidence/Inference/Assumption Review
Pick a recent AI conclusion or an analytical sentence you're about to use.
The statement/conclusion needs to be reviewed
📎 Evidence
🧠 Inference
⚠️ Assumption / Next check
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You've completed Lesson 4.
One sentence to carry: Not every logical statement is fact.